Key Points
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Moderna has made an incredible comeback, surging sixfold over the past year and by around 127% over the past few weeks.
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The MRNA vaccine company recently announced promising news that could have major implications for its pivot toward oncology.
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Yet while the pandemic-era darling has made a comeback, shares could pull back as the market determines a value for its future potential.
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Moderna (NASDAQ: MRNA) shares have made an incredible comeback this year. Up by nearly sixfold over the past 12 months, the stock, formerly one of the top COVID-19 vaccine plays, has surged thanks to developments with the non-COVID aspects of its pipeline.
The most recent surge, sending the stock up around 127% in a matter of weeks, stems from a breakthrough for the biotech company. Now, the question is whether Moderna can hold on to, much less add to, these latest gains.
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Moderna and its cancer vaccine super rally
Post-pandemic, investors bailed on what was once one of the most-followed biotech stocks amid pessimism about the company’s ability to further monetize its mRNA technology. But then, as the company made further progress with its Intismeran Autogene vaccine candidate, bearishness shifted back to bullishness, turning Moderna into an incredible comeback story.
Then, on Aug. 19, Moderna, along with pharmaceutical company Merck (NYSE: MRK), announced positive top-line results for its phase 3 INTerpath-001 trial. This trial involved giving Stage IIB-IV melanoma patients a combination of Intismeran Autogene and Merck’s Keytruda.
Separating substance from hype
On one hand, Moderna’s super rally on the INTerpath-001 news made sense because this study strongly suggests that Moderna can succeed in employing its mRNA technology to develop effective oncology treatments. Given the massive total addressable market for such treatments, it’s logical for the market to rerate shares significantly.
Then again, while the prospect of personalized cancer vaccines represents a serious game changer for medicine, keep in mind two things. First, the extent of Moderna’s latest rally was likely boosted by a short squeeze. Shares initially surged by as much as 175% on the news and have since pulled back. A further cooldown in excitement could continue playing out.
Second, while by all means a likely game changer for Moderna, commercialization of these oncology MRNA products remains years away. With a nearly $60 billion market capitalization, estimated 2026 revenue of just $2.1 billion, and a stock price around $140 to $145 per share against forecast losses of $8.55 per share this year, future potential with oncology appears heavily baked in.
Even if bullish on Moderna’s comeback catalyst, you may want to wait for further weakness before buying.
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Thomas Niel has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Merck and Moderna. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
