Call it a jump scare for the first day of October. Mortgage rates spiked today, and there isn’t one clear reason why — just a mix of stubborn inflation, spooked bond markets and nerves about what the Federal Reserve might do next.
The average interest rate on a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage jumped to 7.44% APR, according to rates provided to NerdWallet by Zillow. This is 19 basis points higher than yesterday and 21 basis points higher than a week ago. (See our chart below for more specifics.) A basis point is one one-hundredth of a percentage point.
Lately, mortgage rates have remained steadily above 7% as inflation puts upward pressure on financial markets. For more on what’s affecting mortgage rates right now, keep reading below the chart.
Average mortgage rates, last 30 days
🤓 Kate on Rates: October 1, 2026
📈 What influences mortgage rates?
Mortgage rates are constantly changing, since a major part of how rates are set depends on reactions to new inflation reports, job numbers, Fed meetings, global news … you name it. For example, even tiny changes in the bond market can shift mortgage pricing.
Right now, bond markets are feeling upward pressure from inflation, which in turn sends mortgage rates higher. In an effort to cool rising prices, the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate by 25 basis points at its September meeting. The Fed doesn’t set mortgage rates, but financial markets watch closely for clues about its next move.
Changes to the federal funds rate ripple out through the economy. With two more Fed meetings on the calendar before the end of 2026, the question remains: How quickly — and how much — will the Fed need to raise rates to tame inflation? That uncertainty is making financial markets jumpy. This week, we’re getting some data that will bring the economic picture into clearer focus.
Inflation: The Personal Consumption Price Index report for August, key measure of inflation, showed prices rising 3.4% since August of last year. That wasn’t quite as hot as forecasters expected, but it’s still above the Fed’s 2% target. Meanwhile, a routine adjustment to the data revised recent inflation readings slightly lower. In spite of that, the larger story remains the same: Until inflation meaningfully eases, that pressure will continue to squeeze mortgage rates higher.
Employment: Tomorrow, the release of the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for August will signal the strength of the labor market. If employment holds steady, the Fed may see room for more rate hikes without putting the economy at risk.
Rate hikes from the Fed aren’t a bad thing. They’re intended to keep inflation under control, which eventually could bring mortgage rates down, too. So if you’re wondering if you should root for a weak jobs report to avoid Fed rate hikes… ugh, don’t be that guy. A weak labor market coupled with high inflation spells trouble for just about everyone. It’s a tough mix that can put pressure on household budgets, rattle markets and leave the Fed with even fewer good options.
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Refinancing might make sense if today’s rates are at least 0.5 to 0.75 of a percentage point lower than your current rate (and if you plan to stay in your home long enough to break even on closing costs).
With rates where they are right now, you could start considering a refi if your current rate is around 7.94% or higher — but there aren’t too many folks for whom that’s true.
Also consider your goals: Are you trying to lower your monthly payment, shorten your loan term or turn home equity into cash? For example, you might be more comfortable with paying a higher rate for a cash-out refinancethan you would for a rate-and-term refinance, so long as the overall costs are lower than if you kept your original mortgage and added a HELOC or home equity loan.
If you’re looking for a lower rate, use NerdWallet’s refinance calculator to estimate savings and understand how long it would take to break even on the costs of refinancing.
🏡 Should I start shopping for a home?
There is no universal “right” time to start shopping — what matters is whether you can comfortably afford a mortgage now at today’s rates.
If the answer is yes, don’t get too hung up on whether you could be missing out on lower rates later; you can refinance down the road. Focus on getting preapproved, comparing lender offers, and understanding what monthly payment works for your budget.
NerdWallet’s affordability calculator can help you estimate your potential monthly payment. If a new home isn’t in the cards right now, there are still things you can do to strengthen your buyer profile. Take this time to pay down existing debts and build your down payment savings. Not only will this free up more cash flow for a future mortgage payment, it can also get you a better interest rate when you’re ready to buy.
🔒 Should I lock my rate?
If you already have a quote you’re happy with, you should consider locking your mortgage rate, especially if your lender offers a float-down option. A float-down lets you take advantage of a better rate if the market drops during your lock period.
Rate locks protect you from increases while your loan is processed, and with the market forever bouncing around, that peace of mind can be worth it.
🤓 Nerdy Reminder: Rates can change daily, and even hourly. If you’re happy with the deal you have, it’s okay to commit.
🧐 Why is the rate I saw online different from the quote I got?
The rate you see advertised is a sample rate — usually for a borrower with perfect credit, making a big down payment, and paying for mortgage points. That won’t match every buyer’s circumstances.
In addition to market factors outside of your control, your customized quote depends on your:
Even two people with similar credit scores might get different rates, depending on their overall financial profiles.
👀 If I apply now, can I get the rate I saw today?
Maybe — but even personalized rate quotes can change until you lock. That’s because lenders adjust pricing multiple times a day in response to market changes.
