Mortgage Rates Today, Thursday, October 29: Kind of a Big Jump

If you’re here looking for lower mortgage interest rates, today is definitely not your day.

The average interest rate on a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage jumped to 7.32% APR, according to rates provided to NerdWallet by Zillow. This is 22 basis points higher than yesterday and 24 basis points higher than a week ago. (See our chart below for more specifics.) A basis point is one one-hundredth of a percentage point.

This comes after the Federal Reserve announced central bankers’ decision to hold the federal funds rate steady yesterday. While the Fed doesn’t directly set mortgage rates, the federal funds rate is one factor that moves them. Last month, when markets began pricing in a possible federal funds rate increase, mortgage rates spiked.

The next Fed meeting isn’t until December, so any rate movement in the next week will likely stem from other factors, like the upcoming jobs report. For more on that, read on.

Mortgage rates are constantly changing, since a major part of how rates are set depends on reactions to new inflation reports, job numbers, Fed meetings, global news … you name it. For example, even tiny changes in the bond market can shift mortgage pricing.

In his post-meeting press conference, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said that September’s rate increase is “starting to work some” toward moving inflation down to the Fed’s 2% goal, but that central bankers don’t have any firm conclusions yet. He also acknowledged that the Fed’s monetary policy actions hadn’t achieved price stability yet, but that they’re “working on it.”

This hints that if inflation data continues to trend upward, central bankers might raise the federal funds rate again at their December 8-9 meeting.

The September Personal Consumption Expenditures price index (PCE), the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, dropped this morning — a day too late for central bankers to consider it in their decision-making process.

The data shows inflation was 3.6% year-over-year in September, up from 3.4% in August.

September’s federal funds rate hike came in the middle of the month, so October’s inflation data will really capture its effect on inflation. The October PCE report will come out on November 25.

Next week, the Nerds will be watching the October jobs report, which comes out Friday, Nov.6. If it shows that employment remained steady (or even improved), that will build an even stronger case for the Fed to raise the federal funds rate again in December, because it would suggest that the labor market could withstand higher rates.

The Fed has a dual mandate to control inflation while supporting maximum employment. If they can work to lower inflation without hurting employment too badly, central bankers may feel more confident to act.

Refinancing might make sense if today’s rates are at least 0.5 to 0.75 of a percentage point lower than your current rate (and if you plan to stay in your home long enough to break even on closing costs).

With rates where they are right now, you may want to start considering a refi if your current rate is around 7.82% or higher — but there just aren’t too many people for whom that’s true.

Also consider your goals: Are you trying to lower your monthly payment, shorten your loan term or turn home equity into cash? For example, you might be more comfortable with paying a higher rate for a cash-out refinance than you would for a rate-and-term refinance, so long as the overall costs are lower than if you kept your original mortgage and added a HELOC or home equity loan.

If you’re looking for a lower rate, use NerdWallet’s refinance calculator to estimate savings and understand how long it would take to break even on the costs of refinancing.

There is no universal “right” time to start shopping — what matters is whether you can comfortably afford a mortgage now at today’s rates.

If the answer is yes, don’t get too hung up on whether you could be missing out on lower rates later; you can refinance down the road. Focus on getting preapproved, comparing lender offers, and understanding what monthly payment works for your budget.

NerdWallet’s affordability calculator can help you estimate your potential monthly payment. If a new home isn’t in the cards right now, there are still things you can do to strengthen your buyer profile. Take this time to pay down existing debts and build your down payment savings. Not only will this free up more cash flow for a future mortgage payment, it can also get you a better interest rate when you’re ready to buy.

If you already have a quote you’re happy with, you should consider locking your mortgage rate, especially if your lender offers a float-down option. A float-down lets you take advantage of a better rate if the market drops during your lock period.

Rate locks protect you from increases while your loan is processed, and with the market forever bouncing around, that peace of mind can be worth it.

The rate you see advertised is a sample rate — usually for a borrower with perfect credit, making a big down payment, and paying for mortgage points. That won’t match every buyer’s circumstances.

In addition to market factors outside of your control, your customized quote depends on your:

• Location and property type

Even two people with similar credit scores might get different rates, depending on their overall financial profiles.

Maybe — but even personalized rate quotes can change until you lock. That’s because lenders adjust pricing multiple times a day in response to market changes.