While the latest figure kills the doom, it is clearly not a boom either.
Spending on AI and tech have driven the surprise upside over the year. While the AI data centre boom may at any point turn to bust, these figures suggest that spending across the economy on investing in these technologies is helpingboost growth. Consumers have been resilient, at least till the autumn, perhaps helped by better economic vibes.
While there has been an understandable focus on high UK borrowing costs, another measure of the international standing of the UK economy, sterling’s value, reached post Brexit referendum highs last week.
Productivity and investment is also looking stronger, especially after recent revisions. Some of the most encouraging figures are in private sector business investment.
I spoke to the chancellor at Nexeon in Oxfordshire, which is searching for a UK factory to manufacture its cutting edge electric vehicle battery – and British – technology. My colleagues visited British watchmakers in Maidenhead carving out a niche to take on the Swiss.
However, this may well not last for the final three months of the year.
Consumer confidence has already fallen as petrol and domestic energy prices start to rise again.
There is a significant challenge with everyday cost-of-living pressures in the coming months. Construction and private house building remain depressed.
The Iran conflict remains the big unknown and whether post the US midterm elections there could be a durable end to the conflict in the Gulf.
Some oil and gas production there is starting to normalise. It could bring down petrol prices, energy bills, government borrowing costs, and mortgage costs too.
Expect to see Downing Street investing heavily in “settlement of the conflict”, which the chancellor told me is the “best economic policy”.
