Bitcoin (BTC) risked losing key support at $82,500 after Thursday’s Wall Street open as oil prices gained over concerns of US-Iran military action.
Key points:
- Bitcoin returned to $81,000 for the first time since Sept. 21 amid fresh concerns about US-Iran military action.
- US 30-year bond yields set another multidecade high as a senior Fed official saw more interest-rate hikes coming.
- BTC price action increasingly suggested the loss of an important support level at $82,500.
Oil spikes over reports of fresh US-Iran strikes to come
Data from TradingView showed BTC/USD dropping to $81,000 on Bitstamp — its lowest since Sept. 21.
BTC/USD four-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Citing a Pentagon official and a source familiar with the matter, NBC News reported that the US could be preparing for fresh military strikes on Iran. This sent oil prices higher on the day, with WTI crude reaching $93.20 per barrel, its highest since Oct. 2, and Brent crude hitting $105.88.
CFDs on WTI crude oil four-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Speaking to supporters at a rally in San Antonio, Texas, US president Donald Trump said that Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff was making progress with Iran on a peace deal, while acknowledging little personal interest in a diplomatic outcome.
“I think the deal isn’t really something that I want to do, but they’re willing to offer us anything to stop,” he said, quoted by the Independent, seeing an end to the conflict “very soon.”
The US 30-year bond yield set a new 24-year high of 5.73% on the day before dropping to 5.65% as markets stayed nervous about the war’s impact on fuel prices and inflation.
US 30-year bond yield one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Comments by Federal Reserve governor Christopher Waller added pressure to yields as he saw the need for further interest-rate hikes to tame inflation.
“If the economic data continue to come in as expected, I anticipate additional hikes to support a timelier return of inflation to our 2 percent goal. But there is some flexibility about when those hikes will occur,” he said in a speech at a Central Bank of Turkey forum in Istanbul.
“The hikes do not need to come at consecutive meetings, but they should be in place in an acceptable period of time.”
Fed target-rate probability comparison for December FOMC meeting (screenshot). Source: CME Group
The latest data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool showed markets increasing bets on a 0.25% hike at the Fed’s December meeting. The odds of this outcome passed 70% on Thursday. Consensus for the October meeting continued to favor a rate pause at the current level of 3.75-4%.
Bitcoin’s $82,500 support hangs in the balance
BTC price action kept traders waiting for a clear move around the $82,500 support level.
Related: Bitcoin monthly ‘new money’ inflows near $5B as BTC price rally stalls
Previously, Cointelegraph reported that this support has significance within Bitcoin’s broader rebound from multiyear lows near $57,000 thanks to similarities with the end of the 2022 bear market.
“Bitcoin is still in a transitional phase and at critical technical juncture. ~$82500 is the deciding price point when it comes to where Bitcoin builds out its next market structure,” trader and analyst Rekt Capital wrote in updated X analysis on the day.
BTC/USD one-week chart. Source: Rekt Capital on X.com
Bitcoin’s dip below $82,000 exacerbated cross-crypto long liquidations, with these at around $430 million at the time of writing, per CoinGlass data.
