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Reading The Markets‘ Michael Kramer shares why it’s important to understand market direction, implied volatility and option positioning (1:00) Why he’s focused on healthcare and stocks like Illumina (7:40) Boston Scientific and Zoetis – lessons learned (15:20) Macro winds mattering less (19:00) Be wary of passive investing (30:15)
Transcript
Rena Sherbill: Very happy to welcome back Michael Kramer, who writes under Mott Capital Management and runs the investing group on Seeking Alpha called Reading The Markets. He has been on the platform for a very long time and we always enjoy talking to him and hear he’s and hearing his insight. Michael, welcome back to the show.
Michael Kramer: Thank you for having me. It’s it’s amazing. I think I started writing on Seeking Alpha in 2014. So it’s been a very long time.
Rena Sherbill: It’s been a very long time. Even just this year alone, we could say we’ve seen some things. So imagine what we’ve seen since 2014. It’s it it’s very, it’s very what’s the word I’m looking for? Hard to parse the sign sometimes.
Are you feeling that way at all these days as the market is up and down and stocks are up and down and this one’s doing well and this one does have more legs, even though it’s seemingly completely reached its valuation threshold? What lessons have you learned and what are you learning right now?
Michael Kramer: Well, the key to the market is to always be trying to learn new things and trying to stay up on the learning curve because the market is always changing around you and what’s worked in the past doesn’t always work in the present.
And that’s one of the harder things, especially for someone like me who’s more data driven when it comes to looking at where the markets may be going, I tend to look at a lot of historical factors, and sometimes those things just stop working and they don’t always have a good explanation.
But I think as an investor, it’s kind of also your responsibility at that point to then go out and figure out what is working and understand how those dynamics are driving price action.
And I think the last couple of years have been significantly different than the previous decade. It seems like a lot of things changed after the pandemic. And I think a lot of those things not only just not just in the market, but I think in the world. But the market has changed quite a bit over the last four or five years from what it was maybe when I started writing on Seeking Alpha in 2014.
Rena Sherbill: What would you say are the things that are working right now?
Michael Kramer: The things that work right now for me at least when it comes to understanding market direction, is understanding implied volatility, understanding where that is and where it could be going, how mechanically implied volatility moves the market on a daily basis, how understanding where implied volatility is going to be may also move the market in the future.
And the interesting thing is that event risk brings out more implied volatility. And when the event passes, implied volatility declines.
So there’s just a mechanical function that goes on when there’s those changes.
Option positioning today is much more dominant in the marketplace than it was five years ago.
Understanding where those key market levels are in the options market really do play a heavy hand in terms of where the market is and where it’s likely to go.
I think a lot of technical analysis now is really just a representation of option market positioning. for anyone that understands how options are sort of playing in and you understand the term gamma and gamma levels and delta positioning, a lot of times when I’m doing my work, I’ll see that a key gamma level in the S&P 500 (SP500), let’s say is 7500.
And lo and behold, you look at the technical chart, and that’s been serving as a key level of support, let’s say. And again, I don’t think that’s a coincidence, right?
I think that’s a function of one reflecting the other. and so I think that those two pieces are the two that I’ve worked the hardest on in understanding better over the last four or five years that I’ve really started to incorporate more into my macro workflow.
In fact, anyone that was a member of my service three or four years ago or five years ago, if they were to come back today, they would see a very different approach to what I we did then.
I think liquidity flows matter a lot more today than they did before the pandemic, let’s say issuance, bill issuance today I think has a significant impact on markets.
The Fed has sort of taken a back seat to the Treasury market, where the Treasury is just having a lot more impact on on fluctuations you’re seeing in the market because of those ebbs and flows of settlement dates and the amount of money the Treasury is issuing on a on a regular basis.
The amount of money the government is creating is having an impact on markets. I mean, those are the three drivers I think that matter the most today.
And things like economic data, which used to be very important, seem to not matter very much in a world where options flows are really dominant and liquidity flows are really dominant because it’s like how many times like after a a Jobs report that was weak have we seen the market rally and you see people on TV trying to explain that rally.
It’s like, well, the Jobs report was bad, and so that must mean that that’s good because the Fed is gonna cut rates. Well, no, a lot of times it’s because implied volatility on measures like the VIX one day were at twenty going into the job report because everyone was super nervous about it.
Everyone put hedges on ahead of it, and then once that job data came in, those hedges came off. And so everyone had to buy back the hedges.
Implied volatility went down and the market went up. And so that’s a really important concept to understand when you’re trying to to live in this world. it’s the same thing like the CPI report.
The CPI report came in hot and everyone’s like, and the market’s rallying because the market loves hot inflation. It’s like silly stuff. But understanding those mechanics, I think, play a really important role in market direction and understanding what’s happening.
I think that’s the world that I’m trying to live in right now because I think that’s the driving force in a lot of things.
And even with earnings, companies will report – here’s a great example. Nvidia (NVDA) reports earnings next week. And, how many times have we seen NVIDIA crush numbers in the past and the stock goes down? And everyone’s like, well they’re not good enough.
Well, no, because everyone was betting on it going higher.
And all those call premiums that people were paying a lot of money for were paying really high implied volatility level that were had really high implied volatility levels have all now decayed because everyone knows what NVIDIA’s earnings are gonna be.
So all of those calls that were betting on upside are now losing tremendous value, which is now resulting in them selling it, which is causing hedging flows to unwind, which is pushing the stock down. We see this stuff all the time and there’s a general, I think, misunderstanding of how important the mechanics are today versus when they’ve ever been before.
Rena Sherbill: And how does that practically or actionably inform how you’re moving in the markets or what you’re invested in or what you’re not invested in? Like in terms of the broad markets that you that you spoke about in terms of not being catalyzed by these economic reports, how does that inform how you’re in the market?
And an NVIDIA story, does that mean you’re not in NVIDIA because there’s a gap between what’s coming and what the promise is?
Michael Kramer: I can tell you personally how I’ve done this because again I’m a registered investment advisor, so I can’t make recommendations or anything like that. I can tell you what I’ve done though.
Rena Sherbill: Sure, we do not make recommendations on the show. This is just for our joy.
Michael Kramer: Right, and so I can tell you like from what I’ve done from my own portfolio. One of the things that I was focusing on, I think the last time maybe we did this show a year ago, I was suggesting Life After the Mag 7.
And I was trying to focus more on healthcare at the time. And I’m still focused on healthcare, and owning a lot of the stocks like Illumina (ILMN), which I bought again in 2024, 2023, maybe even. And I still own it today because it’s largely been working for me finally.
Also because I believe that healthcare has really been one of the sectors that has been left behind, and I think it owns holds a lot of promise in the future, especially with AI.
More recently though, I’ve noticed that the semiconductor rally was really about option markets and it was more about option market chasing prices higher. And I noticed eventually that what was happening was that every I noticed that every time semiconductor stocks went up, software stocks went down.
And it became very apparent to me that that the trade has been own semis, short software. So I was looking around at the software stocks and I realized some of these things are incredibly cheap.
When you look at them from a fundamental standpoint, because at the end of the day, fundamentals still matter, but they matter when they matter. And they matter when they’re so cheap that we’re so expensive you can’t ignore it anymore. A
nd so some of these names I thought were extremely cheap. And I thought the reason why they were so cheap was because of the trade that was taking place.
And also the more I’ve used AI and tools that AI that software companies offer, the more I find that, yes, you can use AI on a a platform. And yes, it makes it maybe that there may be a less a less seats in the future. But I also notice that they’re now charging you more also to integrate AI into that platform. So now there’s not only a subscription fee to owning like QuickBooks.
But if you want to use certain AI features on QuickBooks, for example, you might have to pay an extra fee to do that. and by the way, they’ve raised my price of my QuickBooks subscription like two or three times now in the last several months. And what am I gonna do? Am I gonna like uproot all of you know the last 15 years of business that I’ve been acquiring on QuickBooks? No.
So I went out and I looked into Intuit (INTU). I’m like, wow, this stock is really cheap. And it’s like trading at valuations that it hasn’t seen in decades almost, like a really long time. It was trading at a price that hadn’t been at it since 2022. And if I’m right about semiconductors and the short relationship that they have with software, then Intuit could be a really great opportunity.
So I did that with Intuit and ServiceNow (NOW), both, and I bought both of them from my own portfolio. they haven’t really paid off yet.
But I’m thinking that if this whole semiconductor thing implodes, which I think there’s a good chance that that probably happens at some point, that software will go back up.
And when that happens, I think that some of these companies and the software space specifically are fairly undervalued at this point. And so I’m making a direct play on that and I disclose all this stuff to my subscribers so they’re all fully aware of what I’m doing.
If the options market is going to be really dominant in the future, well, it makes sense to own where those options are trading, right? So like recently the (CBOE) fell quite a bit because the market was like worried about these perpetual future things that are coming out on some of these betting markets.
I’ve missed this stock probably five times over the last three years. Every opportunity I’ve had to buy it, I never bought it because I always thought, maybe it can go lower.
So this time it came down and the valuation numbers look somewhat attractive to me. So I’m like, if I can’t beat options, then I’m gonna own them. And I’m gonna own them by owning the exchange. And so that’s another stock that I recently bought for myself.
So I do incorporate a lot of the things that that I see in the market into, you know, sort of my own v investing philosophy. you know, if I see like, you know, I own like core positions in a lot of the Mag 7 names.
And so like if I saw that, the reason why Apple’s (AAPL) been rising because of something happening in the options market, which is really something I would fade perhaps after earnings, and if Apple’s becoming too heavy in my portfolio, I might trim some Apple.
Why not? If the options market’s gonna give me money for free and trade a stock up on noise, basically, then I’ll take some of that profit off the table and maybe I’ll find something I’m losing money in and offset the gain.
I think that the market today, it’s so bifurcated. You have winners and you have losers and there’s really nothing in between. But what’s interesting is that the index is not reflective of the entire market anymore. At least the S&P 500 (SPY) isn’t in my view.
It’s reflective of like 10 stocks now. And I think there’s a lot of stocks that have gotten left behind.
Software is one part of the market, for example, that’s been totally decimated. And there’s opportunities there that I think if you’re selective with that probably work out just fine in the future. And and so like I take advantage of those opportunities.
Nobody wanted energy stocks at the end of last year, but it looked to me, it made no sense. Well, how can gold and silver be going higher? And everyone’s worried about debasement and and inflation, but oil’s like the most important commodity in the world, and that’s not going up.
It makes no sense to me. If the dollar is going to zero, people were who were owning gold and silver were claiming, then oil should be worth a lot more in the future as well. It trades exactly the same way in terms of the dollar, the dollar relationship as the other ones.
So I’m like, well, if they’re just gonna give away oil so I went out and bought Occidental Petroleum (OXY). I mean, if it’s good enough for Warren Buffett, then it’s good enough for me. And if especially when I’m trying to look for something in that space.
I’ve made a lot of terrible choices too. I bought Boston Scientific (BSX) at a horrible price and I sold it at even worse price. I did the same thing with Zoetis (ZOE). You’re not gonna get them all, but if you can get most of them right, you hopefully make more money than you lose in the end.
Rena Sherbill: Would you say there are lessons that you learned with the that those Boston Scientific and Zoetis?
Michael Kramer: What I do is I create a watch list and I just watch stocks for sometimes a year or two, even, understanding the story, understanding how the stock reacts, understanding what it’s doing, understanding the drivers, and looking for that moment where there’s a really good opportunity where everything just comes together.
So Boston Scientific, I had watched it for two years go nothing but up. And it looked like it had been consolidating for a year. It looked like technically it was getting ready for a big move. Unfortunately, it moved big, but it moved big in the direction that I didn’t expect. So I got that part right, but the direction wrong.
But fundamentally it made sense, right? I mean, the fundamentals seemed okay. The story was intact, and then they come out and they reported earnings that caught everyone off guard. No one expected one part of their business to disappoint. It did. And, I like to try to give things two quarters in a row to prove the market wrong.
So Boston Scientific came out. I think I bought it in the nineties and it came out, reported a really bad quarter. It went down a lot. I held on to it because I’m like, this could just be a one quarter thing. I don’t know.
But the market moves so quickly, it doesn’t really give someone the opportunity to try to, you know, give it time to work itself out. So the stock went down twenty or thirty percent. I held on to it. Next quarter comes, it’s bad again, the stock goes down again, I’m done. I’m out. That’s it. 2 quarters in a row. I lost thirty, forty percent now. I’m just moving on. But in fairness, what if the quarter had been good?
The stock could have been right back to where it was when I originally bought it. So that’s why I always try to give things two quarters in a row.
And the same thing with Zoetis. It had reported two bad quarters in a row. I lost was losing money in it. It was coming to the end of the year. I had capital gains. So goodbye, Zoetis. You didn’t make me money. I’m losing money now.
I need something to write some of the gains off and I just sold it. But, there’s been times where I bought things and they’ve gone down.
Like Intuit reported. I bought into it recently and it reported a a quarter. The market didn’t like the quarter. They didn’t like the Turbo Tax numbers. Stock goes down twenty percent, it goes down thirty percent.
I looked at the option market, the put walls at two sixty. I’m like, I’m gonna hold it. If it breaks two sixty, then I’m gonna have to think about maybe unloading it and just saying I was wrong.
Option expiration comes and goes, two sixty holds. Now the stock is right back almost to where I bought it. I’m still down like ten percent in it. But the idea being is that who knows? I don’t know. I just try to use all the tools I have around me to try to make these assessments.
And in that case, it’s so far worked out. And I’m back to a much better spot than I was maybe in the middle of June.
Rena Sherbill: So aside from the narratives and aside from looking at how the market has evolved, is evolving, what are the other metrics or data points that you’re using to assess these stocks and the market in general?
Michael Kramer: I use some of the basic tools, you know, PE ratios, sales growth, price of sales. I look at things like free cash flow, operating cash flow, very important to me. I look at a lot of those basics. I look at which way of the macro winds blowing as well, and I try to understand what the Fed is likely to do and which way interest rates are likely to go and where’s the economic strength overall.
But those things have just mattered less. And while I try to factor into my into my analysis just because I know that at the end of the day, it’s probably gonna come back to that at some point.
I’m sure if we have a a recession, it’s all this macro stuff is gonna really matter again. But for right now it just hasn’t. I think the transition in the Fed leadership also is changing things a little bit.
Jay Powell was someone that really wouldn’t tolerate a higher unemployment rate. He liked having control over the market. He liked dictating the direction of it. Kevin Warsh seems to be a different animal, where he’s more willing to let the market do what it wants to do.
And that’s more of an older school approach that I think a lot of people probably haven’t experienced. I mean, I remember there was a time, before Ben Bernanke, with Alan Greenspan, you had no idea what the Fed was going to do going into an interest rate decision.
The only thing you knew was based off of what Fed Fund futures were telling you. And they used to joke on TV, they used to call it the briefcase indicator. If the briefcase Alan Greenspan was carrying was really thick, it meant there was a good chance they were going to hike. If the briefcase was really thin, then it was going in and there probably nothing was going to happen. I mean it was a joke, but every once in a while it might actually work out that way.
But with Jay Powell, you knew every single time what he was going to do before the meeting ever took place because the market had already figured it out. There were people talking literally multiple times a day, it felt like from the Fed leadership and all that stuff has died down a little bit.
So now you are starting to see the market move a little bit more on its own. and I think it’s gonna take a little bit of an adjustment period for that to really kind of play out. I think you’re seeing it mostly in bonds right now.
At some point maybe equities do too, but right now, like, I think for the most part, the macro stuff as much as it matters, I think the fundamentals and the macro take sort of a back seat to the other things that I talked about at the very beginning.
Rena Sherbill: Anything further you want to say about bonds?
Michael Kramer: I’ve been bearish on bonds for four years now.
I thought that rates should have been higher a long time ago. I still think they should be significantly higher. And I’m not talking about the Fed funds rate. I’m talking about the ten year and the thirty year. I think the thirty year could be six percent. I think the ten year could easily be over five.
Just because if you look at the steepness of the yield curve, it’s fairly, on a historical basis, again, this is where it can be really tricky because on a historical basis, you look at the steepness of the yield curve, it’s kind of flat, comparatively speaking, when the ten year typically tops out around 300 basis points above the two.
I don’t even know what the yield is today. I think it’s 40 basis points or something. So the yield curve is very flat, in my opinion, from that standpoint. So, I mean, all of a sudden you’re talking about a tenure that’s up well beyond six percent if that were the case. I still think that’s possible. I don’t think that I think the economy is strong.
I think the J Powell Fed didn’t really do enough to bring inflation back to target. And I think that they were sort of afraid to really go all the way because of the pain it might cause on the economic and employment side of things.
I think by the last six months of his term he was pretty much done doing stuff because he didn’t want anything to break. And I think now Kevin Warsh is kind of left in a difficult position.
And if you look at his history, I would certainly think he sounds and seems more hawkish than the J Powell Fed.
Rena Sherbill: And what would you say about the coming months, the coming weeks, coming months in the market? What would you say? I saw a nice MarketWatch article that quoted you being cautious going into September. But what else would you encourage investors to be thinking about?
Michael Kramer: The overall index itself is misleading, I think. I think it’s only really like I said earlier, I think it’s representative of only a handful of names right now.
Walmart (WMT) reported results today, right? And the stock is down something like nine percent. I feel like that would have been a much bigger story before 2020.
Walmart probably also would have had a bigger stake in the S&P five hundred at that point. Someone said to me the other day, well, you still have the retailers to report. And I’m like, who cares?
They’re not gonna move anything. They’re not even important anymore. Walmart’s gonna be okay, who cares? It doesn’t matter. And you could see the S&P was down well like 60 basis points or something. It doesn’t even matter, right?
But I think there’s a lot of stocks out there that are, in my opinion, have been left behind and are are relatively nicely priced, which means that there’s opportunities.
And if the index goes down 10%, it doesn’t mean that every stock in the index is going to go down. There could be positions out there where everyone’s been short this stuff. And so when the market actually goes down, they’re going to be forced to cover their shorts, which means they’ll go up.
And so I think you have to be sort of mindful of the idea that the market is not the market, the index could go down as a whole, but I think that the underlying names within the index, there’s lots of them that could actually benefit from that. And a few of them I’ve already told you.
Rena Sherbill: I was gonna say maybe if I can pick apart a little bit at the stock like Illumina, you were saying why you liked it. If you go on the quote page on Seeking Alpha, you can see that it has had for in recent history consistently low grades on valuation and growth. Maybe talk about the metrics that you’re paying more attention to in that stock and and how they’re helping you stay bullish.
Michael Kramer: I think in that stock, it’s really very simple. I’ll tell you exactly how I got into Illumina. So Illumina owned a company called Grail (GRAL). And Grail, it’s a cancer detection company. They take a blood sample, and then with that blood sample, they look for proteins in your bloodstream that could could be coming from cancer, which is shedding it, right?
And so I bought Illumina because I wanted to play that cancer detection story. And so what happened was why I bought Illumina, they were told by the EU they had to divest Grail, which they had recently bought. And they said it was creating anti competitive, it was like an anti competitive thing.
Meanwhile, the transaction had already gone through. Grail was already part of Illumina. And so I liked Grail because it kind of I thought to myself, like, wow, like.
You know, imagine like they’re doing a lot of this stuff without, you know, before really AI really took on. I’m like, could you imagine like the things they can detect? If they take a sample of your blood and run it through like an AI algorithm, and that AI algorithm can tell you, so many people have had this certain thing, and of those people that have it, they tend to have prostate cancer or something like that.
So that sounds incredible. Now imagine if you could start doing that with that with all sorts of different diseases. So that really is what drew me to Illumina.
And the stock had had a terrible decline and then eventually luckily for me, Grail was spun out of Illumina and shareholders of Illumina got shares of Grail. Not very many, but we got some.
And so I ended up buying more Grail once it came public, and I was able to. So I had an equal position in both Grail and Illumina and so they’re both sort of the same idea, the same play, which is that I’m making a bet that all these companies that do these sort of diagnostic tests are going to see a big benefici b big benefit from AI technologies and medicine.
The things that I’m looking at at Illumina are very simple. Is the company continuing to grow revenue and is it proving earnings? I really don’t care about much else right now.
Because if it if it ends up playing out the way that I think it plays out, which is ultimately that a lot of these companies, and there’s others too in the space. I think Guardian Health is another name. I don’t own that one, but that’s one I’ve been following. It’s almost like in that same space with Illumina and Grail, they’ve all had tremendous runs and because I think they’re all kind of going down that same road is which is incorporating the usage of AI into detecting disease and and cancer.
And I think that those are going to be things that I think those are going to be the real beneficiaries from all this AI and AI spending. And so to me, as long as Illumina isn’t doing anything bad, meaning like as long as the stock isn’t going down a lot, as long as the revenue numbers continue to kind of grow and come in and meet analyst expectations and earnings are okay.
That’s all I care about right now because I don’t think the real story’s really kind of hit yet, if I’m right. Grail has that galleria test and they’re not really even producing revenue yet. But the data they’ve shown has been very good and very positive. And so they’re going to have an adcom at the end of September, which if that goes well and they and ultimately they get an FDA approval for this test, that will probably lead to Medicare picking it up.
And then once Medicare picks it up, it means that it will become largely a a test largely accessible to everyone who’s over fifty, which is a huge opportunity for them.
And who wouldn’t want to know if they had cancer if that could be detected in stage three, then find out that you had it in stage four when the symptoms are present. I think a lot of people would want to know that when it’s treatable.
Rena Sherbill (31:15.049)Yeah, yeah. Michael, what else would you say belongs in this conversation? What else would you encourage investors to be looking at, thinking about, paying attention to?
Michael Kramer: I’ve said a lot already, and I think like the the things that investors need to focus on is less of the headline index and realize that a lot of that again is a representation of just a few names. bBut I think also keep in mind that there’s a lot of opportunities out there that are being missed right now.
And I think it’s also very important for people to realize the risk they have in passive investing right now. A lot of people own SP 500 funds in their 401ks. And they think they’re well diversified because there’s 500 companies in the portfolio.
But they’re not well diversified. And it doesn’t mean that I’m calling for a crash or anything like that. It just means that you could very well see a 20% decline in the S&P because NVIDIA, Micron (MU), and Broadcom (AVGO) go down, right? And the rest of the world could be perfectly fine.
If you remember, if you think back to the year 2000, the Dow never really suffered very much for most of that decline. It really only suffered after the 9-11 attack, but prior to that, the Dow was one of the few indices and averages that really did hold together.
And the reason why was because it didn’t have all those a those all the internet dot com type of names, networking. So again, it’s a similar sort of setup like that. So I think that you just have to be mindful that the risk is, is that, be well positioned in your own portfolio and just don’t assume that the S&P five hundred is a well balanced, well diversified portfolio because it’s not anymore. At least not at this point.
Rena Sherbill: If I may, what would you say to how you see the S&P five hundred evolving past this stage of being so top heavy? Or what’s the runway with those stocks like Micron, like Broadcom, et cetera? And without giving investment advice, of course, what would you encourage investors like a more passive investors or more novice investors, newer investors? Is there a certain ETF that you think belongs in a passive approach to to the markets?
Michael Kramer: The thing is, I think, is that if you’re gonna be invested in passive type funds, maybe to diversify that, you need to also be invested in different sector funds. Meaning like don’t have all your money just in the S&P and don’t have, you know, or have fifty percent of your money in the S&P and 50% of your money in bonds or whatever, sixty-forty.
Maybe the sixty percent that is in equity should be divided up among different sectors in the market as opposed to being 60% SP 500 because, again, you could go through a period of time where healthcare does really well or software stocks come back, but the S&P five hundred goes down because of the way that it’s created right now, but because of the capitalization of it right now and the weightings.
I mean even the Mag 7 companies that are in it, and I own a bunch of them., again, they’re at risk as well, but you can’t not own them either because they’re in the index and because they’ve done really well.
So to not own them is to also kind of spite yourself a little bit. So I think you just have to be diversified away from those sectors and look for other opportunities.
And there’s a lot of like opportunities out there and I think you can do the same thing through like ETFs and sector funds.
Rena Sherbill: Very good, Michael. Once again, your investing group is called Reading The Markets and you have a two-week trial period, which is very enticing, I think. What would you leave our audience with as we close this show out?
Michael Kramer: I think right now markets are probably gonna continue to be volatile. They may get more volatile if interest rates continue to rise.
But I think within the market, I think overall the S&P is a little bit of an illusion as to what the market really is. And so I think if you look closely enough underneath the surface, you may find that there are ways to really hedge your exposure in some of the sectors that really have just not performed to the same level or the same degree.
And I think again, if you just look around you can find those opportunities. There’s a lot of those opportunities out there.
Rena Sherbill: And can people get in touch with you through Seeking Alpha? Is that the best way to get touch with you?
Michael Kramer: You can always send me a message through Seeking Alpha. You can join the Reading The Markets group and get the two weeks for free. There is a chat room there. I do try to check it at least once a day. So if you do have a question, you can message me there and I’d be more than happy to answer it.
