If current trends continue, the Chinese state will find itself exposed to a political succession crisis, a weakening economy, and a lack of resources to exercise power domestically and project it externally. It would be a perfect storm, with far-reaching global repercussions.
NEW DELHI—This has been an era of shocks. In the space of two decades, the world has witnessed globally disruptive wars—from Iraq in the 2000s to Ukraine and Iran today—a global financial crisis, a global pandemic, and a rogue American president upending the global order. Now, yet another potential shock must be addressed: Though few dare to speculate about it publicly, an economic and political perfect storm is bearing down on China.
