Startup capital is both more abundant than ever this year and yet scarcer. That contradiction has become increasingly visible in 2026 when analyzing Crunchbase data, and the trend continued through Q3.
Our data shows that despite record venture capital spending in 2026 — nearly $680 billion through Q3 — investors are writing fewer checks to seed and early-stage companies, the businesses one typically thinks of when we talk about startups.
Large rounds dominate funding
One of the best ways to visualize this dichotomy is by looking at how much of the record global venture funding this year went to funding rounds across different tiers: less than $100 million, $100 million to just under $1 billion, and $1 billion and more.
As illustrated above, the funding surge this year is concentrated in those largest rounds, while the smaller-round market has essentially flatlined since 2023.
The massive surge in billion-dollar-plus rounds in Q1 and Q2, of course, was thanks to record-setting financings for OpenAI and Anthropic. But it’s not just those two companies concentrating capital at the top. About one-third of Q3 funding went to just 27 companies raising billion-dollar-plus rounds.
Deals keep falling even as dollars rise
In North America, the largest startup market, deal counts have trended downward over several years, even as venture investment soared.
In Q3, reported deal counts in North America fell 16% year over year and 14% quarter over quarter, reaching the lowest quarterly total since 2023, even as North American funding dollars jumped 50% year over year to $92 billion. The contraction is concentrated in seed and early-stage deals — North American late-stage counts actually increased year over year.
The early-stage slump
Series B is a particularly stark illustration of the dollars-up-but-deals-down trend. Series B marks the stage when startups are maturing: they typically show some growth and traction but still have plenty of upside potential. But while dollars invested in U.S. startups at the Series B stage hit a multiyear high so far this year, deal count is on track to hit a multiyear low.
It’s a similar story among seed and Series A startups, with money concentrating into larger rounds even as deal count dips.
Looking ahead
Anthropic, the biggest venture-backed private company of all, is slated to go public this month in a potential $2 trillion IPO, offering a prominent test of public investors’ appetite for the companies driving this venture boom.
A strong public-market reception could reinforce venture investors’ willingness to finance enormous AI bets, while a disappointing debut could put unicorn valuations under pressure.
But neither outcome guarantees that funding will reach a wider pool of startups. The real measure of a broader startup recovery we’ll be watching: whether deal counts start to rise alongside the dollars.
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Illustration: Dom Guzman
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