Mortgage rates moved slightly higher this week. But whether that feels like good news or bad news depends on one thing: when you started shopping for a home.
The average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose four basis points to 6.51% APR in the week ending July 23, according to rates provided to NerdWallet by Zillow. (A basis point is one one-hundredth of a percentage point.) We calculate our weekly average using daily APRs recorded over the past five business days.
Ups and downs are normal in the mortgage market. This week’s increase was modest, given the growing instability in the Middle East. The re-escalation of fighting with Iran pushed Brent crude prices — the global oil benchmark — above $100 a barrel today, the highest level since May. Higher energy costs fan the flames of inflation, which puts upward pressure on mortgage rates.
The best way to judge mortgage rates isn’t week over week — it’s against your own timeline. Here’s how to put today’s mortgage rates in perspective based on where you are in your homebuying journey.
If you’re just starting your house hunt
Mortgage rates rarely stay in one place for long. If you recently started looking for a home, this week’s increase is just one of many you’ll see — so don’t try to time the market perfectly.
First, focus on what you can control: knowing how much house you can afford. Then, compare offers from at least three mortgage lenders. You might feel pressure to “buy the dip” when mortgage rates drop, but you have more time to shop around than you think. As long as all your applications fall within a 45-day window, credit bureaus will count it as one inquiry.
For context, in the past 45 days, NerdWallet’s daily average for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage has seen a low of 6.15% APR and a high of 6.59% APR.
Your takeaway: Because each lender sets its own rates and fees based on your credit profile and other financial details, shopping around might save you more than waiting for the national average to dip.
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If you’ve been searching for a few months
If your New Year’s resolution was to buy a home, 2026 has tested your resolve.
Since late February, mortgage rates have climbed from the upper-5% range to around 6.5% as the war in Iran rattled financial markets. That half-percentage-point increase may not sound like much, but on a $400,000 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, it adds nearly $150 a month in interest.
The longer your home search lasts, the more invested you become in what mortgage rates do next. But don’t count on relief coming just around the corner. Renewed fighting in Iran has revived inflation concerns.
Inflation fears have increased the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate hike later this year. While the Fed is likely to hold the federal funds rate steady at its July meeting, odds of a rate hike are currently over 55% for September, according to CME FedWatch. The Fed doesn’t set mortgage rates, but mortgage rates often move in anticipation of the Fed’s next step.
“In this kind of environment, we’re unlikely to see mortgage rates drop,” says Kate Wood, lending expert at NerdWallet.
Your takeaway: Keep in mind that mortgage rates aren’t the only part of the equation. As summer winds down, sellers are often more willing to negotiate. Rather than stressing about recent rate trends, know where you have leverage as a buyer and don’t be afraid to use it.
If you’ve been looking for a year or more
Here’s where it gets interesting. Longtime shoppers might shrug at this week’s 6.51% APR — and some might even feel like they’re getting a deal. After all, 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rates routinely climbed above 7% throughout early 2025. Looking back further, mortgage rates were in the high-7% range in late 2023 — meaning some recent homeowners might be in the money for a refinance at today’s 6.51% APR.
If you’ve been house hunting since last year or earlier, you’ve probably learned one of the hardest lessons in homebuying: There’s always a reason to wait, whether it’s for less competition or lower mortgage rates.
Your takeaway: Don’t wait for every piece to fall into place. A home that fits your needs and your budget is worth more than perfect market timing.
